Table 3

Modifiable Risk Factors and HF Risk in New-Onset AF

Modifiable Risk Factors at AF BaselineSubgroup (n)Incident HF EventsPerson-Yrs Follow-UpAge-Adjusted Incidence Rate (95% CI)Multivariable-Adjusted HRp Value
023191,896.56.3 (2.2–10.4)0.14 (0.07–0.29)<0.0001
1758885,679.416.2 (12.1–20.4)0.40 (0.25–0.63)<0.0001
2381652,743.725.8 (17.3–34.2)0.60 (0.37–0.95)0.029
3–412525779.336.0 (17.4–54.6)Reference

Abbreviations as in Tables 1 and 2.

  • Incidence rates are age-adjusted, reported per 1,000 person-yrs, and reflect risk factor profiles at the time of AF diagnosis.

  • Multivariable models reflect time-updated assessment of risk factor profiles (i.e., allows for changes in risk factor profiles after AF diagnosis). Specifically, adjustment was for age, race, randomization assignment (ASA, vitamin E), and history of MI at AF diagnosis as well as time-updated assessment of medication use (statin, antihypertensive, HRT), MI, coronary revascularization, chronic kidney disease, and modifiable risk factors.

  • Modifiable risk factors as assessed at the time of AF diagnosis include: diabetes mellitus, current smoking, BMI ≥30 kg/m2, and SBP >120 mm Hg.